Making some predictions

I have never paid so much attention to the data being shared by the government and some of the key economic indicators. The core inflation data, movement on Bitcoin, and all the other macroeconomic factors have forced me to read a bit more. Now I just wrote about how there are so many DIFFERENT predictions with the same objective data and how important it is to pay attention to some important metrics in the economy. I’m doing just that.

While I’m not an economic master and some other influencers, advisors, talking heads have all predicted some similar predictions I’m reading more into things like inflation, government debt, and employment instead of just paying attention to the realtors stating just buy a home it makes sense (whattt?!).

Here are the guesses for this year…

1) Bitcoin makes it to $100,000

Not only $100,000 but I’ll also give a timeframe – 90 days after the halving. Historicals show that there is a slight Bitcoin price pump prior to the halving and then a much larger one 90 -120 days after the halving. I’m counting on the shorter time frame after the halving for 3 reasons:

a) Massive inflows from the ETFs seem to be non-stop and will most likely continue pushing buying pressure up. This one isn’t a dealbreaker though since the ETFs are new for this cycle.

b) A lot of the Bitcoin out in the wild hasn’t moved in over two years (Over 50%). That means that a lot of the Bitcoin is illiquid and providing a further supply squeeze. This could change when the price starts to pump post-halving.

c) In times of inflation spikes and recession, Bitcoin does well. Take a look at the markets – here we are.

2) Inflation sticks around for a while longer and rates barely drop

The government continues to pile on the debt and that’s not even counting the unfunded things like Social Security. The majority of the payments are going towards INTEREST payments! This means that the government will be forced to print some more cash, inflation will be impacted, and rates will stagnant. I do see them dropping once the inflation cools off a little, but at that point we’ll see the hard-er landing than we were hoping for.

3) We’ll see a ‘recession’ by the end of the year after rates don’t drop and commercial loans start to default

Based on the unemployment numbers predictions (it’s actually going up by 2025) and the clear issue with debt (per Papa Powell we’re on an “unsustainable fiscal path”). If the BRICs path continues, that means even more of the unused dollars will flood back into the US mimicking the printing of money which could lead to a hyperinflation experience. This means we will hit the ‘recession’ The Fed has tried to avoid.

4) Gold and Silver prices (barring suppression from big banks) should rise

With the macroeconomic uncertainties (read above) and the international events, allocations should grow in the precious metals. Gold does well when rates drop and the dollar weakens (more demand internationally). Silver could still have a struggle since it highly correlated to a growing economy, but if The Fed does ease rates there is a chance.
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My plan

With the halving, I’ll be planning to realize some of my crypto returns to reinvest into things like real estate, my dividend stocks, and my business. With the liquidation of the assets that have appreciated (crypto in this case), I’ll be able to load back up into distressed assets or continue to invest in assets I feel historical withstand the test of time.